From committed to dismissive: how conspiracy mentality and trust in the democratic (political) system shape climate policy perspectives in Germany

The implementation of new policy measures to mitigate climate often leads to public backlash, undermining their political feasibility, especially in democracies. To understand public opinion and the various positions within the polarized climate policy debate, our study draws on a representative survey conducted in Germany in 2022. We found strong evidence for four distinct groups, which we label as being ‘committed’ to, ‘worried’ about or ‘indifferent’ to climate policy initiatives, or being outright ‘dismissive’ of such policies. Distrust of democratic institutions, processes, politicians and norms as well as a tendency towards a conspiracy mentality play a crucial role in explaining the cleavage between these groups, particularly between the committed and the dismissive. The committed are a rather West German, female, democracy appreciating, urban and educated social group without a conspiracy mentality. In contrast, the dismissive group exhibits a conspiracy mentality and is sceptical of the political elite. This reflects a West German green and an East German right-wing populist milieu. The worried, who are concerned about losing their jobs, increasing social conflict and falling living standards as a result of climate policy, and the largest group of the indifferent are less well explained by the socio-demographic, attitudinal covariates and require further research. The results of the segmentation can be used to design effective climate communication and develop target group-orientated approaches.