A_02 Trust in Democracy, Populism, and Voting Behavior in Times of Transformation

The aim of this work package (WP) is to determine, through analytical and empirical methods, the effects of social cohesion on trust in the institutions of a pluralistic and liberal democracy under conditions of crisis.

Of particular interest is the question of how the effects of democratic cohesion differ from those of other forms of cohesion. Is there a systematic relationship between attitudes that we associate with democratic cohesion—for example, acceptance of plurality and an orientation toward equality—and trust in political institutions and democracy, pro-democratic attitudes, political behavior, and, in particular, voting behavior?

To this end, the project examines both supportive and rejecting attitudes toward representative democracy and social groups. It also considers corresponding political behavioral intentions (voting behavior) on the basis of standardized survey data, with a focus on Germany and with attention to East and West German specificities. By measuring democratic cohesion and analyzing its effects on political processes in democracies, the project contributes to one of the central questions of the research area.

A prerequisite is the understanding of democratic cohesion formulated in Research Area A. We assume a positive relationship between trust in democracy and a pluralistic understanding of social cohesion, while a homogenizing understanding of cohesion is considered as detrimental to democracy. In doing so, we take into account citizens’ specific attitudes toward groups in times of transformation and widespread perceptions of crisis—for example, with regard to climate, migration, gender and family, and secularization—as well as anti-democratic bridge ideologies (racism, antisemitism, antifeminism). We assume that crises foster a homogenizing understanding of cohesion and endanger democratic cohesion. The growing spread of conspiracy myths in times of crisis and the emphasis on authoritarian leadership and collectivity, together with bridge ideologies, can foster mistrust and undermine democratic cohesion. The way crises are responded affects trust in political institutions—especially institutions involved in day-to-day politics, such as parliament and parties—as well as voting behavior, including voting for right-wing populist and right-wing extremist parties.

The conceptual basis of the WP lies in political culture research and the concept of political support, which presupposes a shared conception of political community and a fundamental recognition of a political system for its stability, as well as in a neo-cleavage approach that holds that a new dividing line has emerged in recent decades centered on issues of transnationalization and societal openness. The aim of the WP is continuous monitoring of key indicators of social—especially democratic—cohesion in their relationships to democratic institutions and political behavior, the identification of key factors that promote or weaken democratic cohesion, and a contextualizing international comparative perspective.