Voting green or right-wing populist: Ideological poles of a new cleavage?

With the emergence of the two newest party families, Green and right-wing populist (RWP) parties, the assumption rose that these parties can be considered the two poles of the new transnational cleavage. In this paper, I analyse the impact of voter attitudes toward liberal values, immigration, EU integration and climate change in nine Western and Northern European countries on voting for Green and RWP parties using data from the ESS10 (2020–2022). Using descriptive analyses and logistic regression models, I find some evidence of a transnational cleavage, in the form of an ideological as well as structural divide between Green and RWP parties and their voters. However, this divide does not extend across all four attitudes or all nine countries. I conclude that Green and RWP parties do not seem to be complete opposites in Northern and Western Europe, but only in country- and issue-specific contexts.